Mike Lee leads UT-SEN race by 10
TO: Senate Conservatives Fund, Washington D.C.
FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies research
RE: Survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters in Utah
Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of Utah Republicans self-identified to be likely voters in the upcoming state primary election, including the race for U.S. Senate. The survey was conducted June 17, 2010, and included 642 respondents statewide. The poll carries a margin of error of +/? 3.84 percentage points.
Lee Holds Substantial Lead in Republican Senate Nomination Race in UtahJUNE 18, 2010 - Mike Lee holds a 45% to 35% lead over Tim Bridgewater in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Utah, a new Wenzel Strategies survey shows. The survey, conducted on June 17, 2010, also shows that both men have near-identical favorability ratings that are quite strong - with Bridgewater holding a slight but statistically insignificant advantage. Among GOP voters statewide, 66% have a favorable opinion of Bridgewater (with 24% holding a "strongly favorable" opinion and 42% holding a "somewhat favorable" opinion of him). For Mike Lee, 64% hold a favorable opinion (including 31% who hold a "strongly favorable" opinion and 34% holding a "somewhat favorable" opinion - with figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
The horserace shows Lee enjoys a lead among those who are firm in their decision, while Bridgewater holds a slight edge among those whose candidate choice is soft. Among those who are firm in their choice of U.S. Senate candidate, Lee leads Bridgewater by a 29% to 19% edge. Among those who are "leaning towards" supporting a candidate, Bridgewater wins 17% support, compared to 15% who said they are leaning toward supporting Lee.
It is notable that, in the key demographic group of those voters in their 40s, Lee's advantage is substantial. Among those voters, 30% said they "strongly support" Lee, while just 9% "strongly support" Bridgewater. Overall among voters in their 40s, Lee leads, 45% to 32% over Bridgewater. Wenzel Strategies polling in Senate races across the country this spring has shown that this demographic is particularly energized in Republican primary elections, largely because this group of voters is in most cases most deeply affected by the economic recession and concerns over the future of the federal government. They are old enough to have families and responsibilities both with children and with aging adults, and see a future that could include either significant tax increases, inflation, or both. Midway through their careers, they are in many cases not yet financially secure enough to shake off the on?going recession as a short?term problem.
Lee also likely benefits from a very positive sentiment among Utah Republican voters toward the TEA Party movement that has developed over the past year or so. Nearly three out of every four voters - 71% - has a positive opinion of the movement - and 51% said they have a "strongly favorable" opinion of the movement. Just 17% said they had a negative impression of the TEA Party movement, while 12% said they didn't know enough about the movement to have formed an opinion.
The TEA Party movement has been involved in several key Senate primary races around the country this year, including Rand Paul's primary victory over an "establishment" candidate in Kentucky, and Sharron Angle's recent primary victory over a similar "establishment" opponent next door in Nevada.
Wenzel Strategies research is a survey research and communications consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio. Founded in 2005, it conducts national, state, and local political polling for political, non-profit, and media clients.
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