Senate Conservatives Fund — IN-SEN Poll Shows Stutzman Surge

Senate Conservatives Fund fielded a poll on Thursday night on likely Republican voters in Indiana. The poll shows that Marlin Stutzman has moved into a tie for second place and is surging. He was previously in a distant third. Fox News says the race between Stutzman and Coats could be a "photo finish." Here is the analysis of our poll:

Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of Republicans likely to vote in the upcoming party primary election. The survey included 801 respondents and was balanced for gender, age, and region. The poll was commissioned by the Senate Conservatives Fund and was conducted April 29, 2010. It carries a margin of error of +/ 3.43 percentage points. Wenzel Strategies is a public opinion research company based in Columbus, Ohio.

A Wenzel Strategies survey of 800 likely voting Republicans conducted April 29, 2010 in Indiana finds the race is remarkably fluid for a race that includes a former U.S. Senator and is fastapproaching its final days. The survey shows former Senator Dan Coats leads two more conservative challengers, but that his support appears soft heading into Election Day. Indiana Republican Senate Primary Race

Dan Coats - 28%
Marlin Stutzman - 18%
John Hostettler - 18%
Others - 6%
Not sure - 30%

The poll shows Stutzmans support is firmest, as 59% of his backers said they "firmly" support him and 41% are "leaning but could change their minds" before the election. Coats has the firm support of 56%, with Hostettlers support split 5050 between "firm" supporters and "leaners."

That nearly one in three likely primary voters are still undecided shows this race is no where near over. There is no question that Coats has the edge today, but almost anything could happen before the time polls close. This race reflects what Wenzel Strategies has seen in similar races across the county wellknown moderates are struggling mightily against conservative challengers in these hallmark statewide races. These numbers show Coats has not been able to pull together a convincing base of support in the face of an energized opposition.

Click here to download a PDF version of the report.